新型コロナウイルス(24，25) 中国，イタリア，ロシア，英国，インド PHEIC
● 新型コロナウイルス(25) 中国，イタリア，ロシア，英国
PRO/EDR> Novel coronavirus (25): updates, China, Italy, Russia, UK
● 新型コロナウイルス(24) 中国，インド PHEIC
PRO/EDR> Novel coronavirus (24): updates, China, PHEIC, India, economy, research
Archive Number: 20200131.6937255
In this update:
[1] 2019-nCoV declared as PHEIC, 30 Jan 2020
[2] WHO Situation Report no. 9, 29 Jan 2020
[3-4] China update - 30 Jan 2020，Zhejiang, Henan, Guangdong provinces, 30 Jan 2020
[5] New countries confirming imported cases: India; BC, Canada
[6-7] Germany, USA, South Korea，Thailand, Japan, Australia
[8-11] Travel advisory for citizens，Flight suspensions，Border closure - Russia，Economic costs
[12] Research - Incubation period，Neutralizing antibodies，Vaccine
[1] 2019-nCoV declared as PHEIC, 30 Jan 2020
情報源 WHO 2020年1月30日
FORTH 厚労省検疫所より。
新型コロナウイルスのアウトブレイクに関するIHR（国際保健規則）緊急委員会 第２回会合に関する声明：原文の公表は1月30日です。最新の情報を確認してください。
...
会議の議事録
...
現在、中国全国で7,711例の確定例と12,167例の疑い例があります。 確定例のうち、1,370人が重症で170人が死亡しました。124人が回復し病院から退院しました。
現在、18か国で83件の症例があります。 これらのうち、中国への旅行歴がなかったのは7例のみでした。中国以外の3カ国でヒトからヒトへの感染がみられました。うち1例では重症となっており、死亡した例はありませんでした ...
結論とアドバイス
... 1か月で5つのWHO地域で症例が報告されているなか、まだ多くの未知のものがあることと、そして、武漢の外および中国の外でヒトからヒトへの感染が発生していることを認めました。 ... このアウトブレイクが現時点において PHEIC の基準に合致していると意見が一致し、暫定的な勧告として発出される以下のような助言を提案しました ...
WHOに対するアドバイス
... 委員会は、入手可能な現在の情報に基づいて、渡航または貿易の制限をしないことを推奨します。
中国に対するアドバイス
次のことを継続してください。
●包括的なリスクコミュニケーション戦略を実施して、アウトブレイクの展開や状況、人々における予防及び防護の対策、封じ込め策について、定期的に人々に周知すること
●現在の流行の封じ込めのための公衆衛生対策を強化すること
●保健医療システムの回復力・強靭性（レジリエンス）を確保し、医療従事者を守りマンパワーを確保すること
●中国全土でサーベイランスと積極的な症例検出を強化すること
●WHOおよびパートナーと協力して、このアウトブレイクの疫学および展開と封じ込め対策を把握し評価するための調査を実施すること
●症例に関するデータを共有すること
●このアウトブレイクにおける人獣共通感染の発生源、とりわけ潜在的な地域循環する可能性の特定を続けること。そして、把握したらすぐにWHOに共有すること
●国際交通への干渉を最小限に抑えながら、さらなる評価と治療を行うために症状のある旅行者を早期に発見することを目的として、国際空港と国際港で出国（出航）スクリーニングを実施すること
全ての国に対するアドバイス
... 積極的なサーベイランス、早期発見、隔離と症例管理、接触追跡と新型コロナウイルスの伝播の防止などについて、すべての国が封じ込めの準備を整えるべきです。そしてすべてのデータをWHOと共有すべきです ...
グローバルコミュニティに対して
... グローバルコミュニティはIHR（国際保健規則）の第44条に従って、連帯と協力を引き続き実行すべきです ...
[2] WHO Situation Report no. 9, 29 Jan 2020
情報源 WHO 2020年1月29日
Situation in numbers
Globally: 6065 cases confirmed
China: 5997confirmed, 9239 suspected, 1239 severe, 132 deaths
Outside of China: 68 confirmed, 15 countries
WHO risk assessment
China: very high
Regional level: high
Global level: high
Highlights
- United Arab Emirates において，武漢市からの旅行者 4人の感染を確認。
...
[3] 中国 update - 30 Jan 2020
情報源 China.org 2020年1月30日
中国政府当局は 1月30日，7711 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus in 31 provincial-level regions が報告と明らかにした。死者は合計 170人 ...
1月29日， チベット Tibet Autonomous Region 自治区で初めて確認された症例を含む 1737 new confirmed cases, と 38例の死亡 deaths, including 37 in Hubei province 湖北省 and one in Sichuan province 四川省，が確認された ...
[4] 中国
Epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection [in Chinese]
Zhejiang province 浙江省
... As of 24:00 on 29 Jan 2020, Zhejiang province had reported a total of 428 confirmed cases of pneumonitis with new coronavirus infection, 54 severe cases, ... 省内の地域別発生数，原文参照願います。
Henan province 湖南省
At 04:00 on 29 Jan 2020, the province had reported a total of 278 confirmed cases of pneumonia of new coronavirus infection, 37 severe cases, 同上。
Guangdong province 広東省:
As of 12:00 on 30 Jan 2020, 354 cases of pneumonia diagnosed with new coronavirus infection have been reported in the province. ... There were 176 males and 178 females, aged between 11 months and 85 years.
[5] New countries confirming imported cases: インド; BC, カナダ
インド
情報源 India Today 2020年1月30日
Highlights
- India's 1st coronavirus case reported in Kerala
- Patient is a student studying in China's Wuhan University
- Patient is stable and being closely monitored
カナダ British Columbia, Canada
情報源 Prince George Citizen 2020年1月29日
州保健当局 the BC Centre for Disease Control により，バンクーバー Metro Vancouver で初めての感染例 The 1st case of the novel coronavirus が確認された。the Vancouver，the North Shore, Richmond, and the Sea to Sky corridor as far as Bella Coola などが含まれる，Coastal Health Authority region 在住の 40歳代男性で，定期的に中国との間を行き来するビジネスマンであり，最近，一時的な武漢市滞在も含めた中国国内への旅行から帰国した。
[6] ドイツ，米国，韓国
ドイツ
情報源 Yahoo Sports 2020年1月28日
ドイツ国内で，欧州内では初めてのコロナウイルスのヒト－ヒト感染例が，1月28日確認された。the Starnberg area of Bavaria の 33歳男性は，中国から出張中であった，ミュンヘン近郊に本社のある自動車部品サプライヤー automotive supplier Webasto 社の同僚からウイルスに感染した。州保健当局は，国内で他の患者は発見されておらず，感染拡大のリスクは低い，としている。上海 Shanghai から来たこの中国人の社員は，21日にセミナー出席のため Webasto's German headquarters を訪れたが，23日の帰国便内で発病した。(この女性社員は) 中国に帰国後，検査が陽性となった。ドイツへ出発する数日前に武漢から来た両親と会っていた。
米国
情報源 CNBC 2020年1月30日
30日，イリノイ州保健当局 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Illinois public health officials は 30日，米国内では初めてとなるヒト－ヒト感染例 the nation's 1st person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus を報告した。武漢から感染して帰国したシカゴの女性の配偶者であった。
韓国
情報源 Channale News Asia 2020年1月30日
韓国保健当局 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea が 30日，国内初のヒト－ヒト感染例 the 1st local case of human-to-human transmission を報告した。エアライン各社により中国便の運行を停止されている中，新たに 2例の感染が確認され，合計患者数は 6例となった。6例目の患者は 56歳の韓国人男性で，南部 the South で 3例目の患者と接触後に感染が判明した。現在，ソウルの病院に隔離されている。他の 5例は，武漢市から帰国後に診断された症例。
[7] タイ，日本，オーストラリア
タイ
情報源 News-24 [in French] 2020年1月28日
The number of coronavirus cases in Thailand is 14。中国からの客はすべて検査されている。
日本
情報源 Daily Mail 2020年1月30日
武漢から帰還した日本人のうちの 3人が，新型コロナウイルス検査で陽性となり，フィリピンとインドでも感染が確認されている。日本人のうちの 2人は，移送中は何も症状が見られなかった。
オーストラリア
情報源 Sky News 2020年1月30日
The 7th case was confirmed in Australia, the 1st in Queensland, a 44-year-old Chinese national.
[8] 渡航勧告: India
情報源 Telangana Today 2020年1月30日
中国へのフライトを持つ，唯一のインドのキャリア 2社 -- IndiGo and Air India -- が 29日，新型コロナウイルス感染に襲われている同国との間の運行停止を発表した ... 最新の渡航勧告では，中国への渡航を控えるよう呼びかけられている
[9] 運行停止 Flight suspensions: multiple airlines
情報源 LemonWire 2020年1月30日
British Airways は all flights to China を, American Airlines は Los Angeles flights to and from Shanghai 上海 and Beijing 北京 の運行停止を決めた ... Air India and South Korean budget-carrier Seoul Air も停止を決め, and Indonesia's Lion Air は同様の措置を検討中である。Other carriers, including Finnair, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, and Singapore-based Jetstar Asia, are slashing service ...
Starbucks ... said more than half of its 4292 stores in China are now closed.
By contrast, McDonald's ... has closed several hundred restaurants, including all of its properties in Hubei province. But 3000 remain open elsewhere in the country ... 他の Airline についての情報など，原文参照願います。
- Japan's JAL said it had not changed its flight plans, while German carrier Lufthansa said it was monitoring the situation "very closely" and would, if necessary, make changes in consultation with the authorities.
[10] 国境封鎖 - ロシア
情報源 Pravda report 2020年1月30日
Russia closes border with China as 2019-nCoV coronavirus claims more lives.
[11] Economic costs
情報源 Reuters 2020年1月29日
保険会社，エアライン，ホテル，旅行会社，スターバックス， ... 原文参照願います。
[12] Research
[a] 潜伏期間 Incubation period
情報源1 MedRxiv 2020年1月27日
原著タイトル The incubation. period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China. MedRxiv. 2020 (preprint); doi: .
要約
... 武漢市以外で確認された 34例の患者の，渡航歴と発症時の症状から，平均の潜伏期間 the mean incubation period は 5.8 日 (4.6-7.9, 95% CI) days, ranging from 1.3-11.3 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile) と推計された。
These values help to inform case definitions for 2019-nCoV and appropriate durations for quarantine.
情報源2 GitHub 2020年1月29日
湖北省以外で確認された患者 Wuhan novel coronavirus (nCoV-2019) cases の暴露と症状を collecting data (freely available) している。これらは，地域内感染が確認されていない国または地方で確認された症例である ...
Data summary
101 cases from 38 countries and provinces outside of Hubei, China のうち，平均年齢は 52歳。29 cases が Mainland China (29%)。61 cases (60%) に発熱が認められている。
平均の潜伏期間 The median incubation period は 5.174 days (CI: 4.46-6.037) だが，The 2.5% では 2.542 days 未満(CI: 1.829-3.564) であり，一方で，97.5% of the population would experience symptoms by 10.531 days (CI: 7.381-15.051) であった。
[?] The 'meanlog' and 'sdlog' estimates are the median and dispersion parameters for a LogNormal distribution; i.e., we recommend using a LogNormal (1.644, 0.363) distribution to appropriately represent the incubation time distribution .
[b] 中和抗体 Neutralizing antibodies
情報源 Tass 2020年1月29日
Scientists discover antibody that can neutralize 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
原文参照願います。
[c] ワクチン Vaccine
情報源 Vice 2020年1月29日
新型コロナウイルス感染の患者数が 2003年の SARS を上回る中，香港の研究者らがワクチンの開発に成功したと発表した。chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong は，すでにワクチンの製造は完了したが，検査には長い時間がかかるだろうと述べた。研究チームは，香港初の輸入感染例からこの未知のウイルスを分離したと明らかにした。使用できるまでに，動物実験に数か月，ヒトの臨床試験にさらに1年以上を要すると述べた ... 現在米国では少なくとも 4 labs in the US がワクチンの開発に取り組んでいる。The National Institutes of Health in Maryland が数週間前から，ほか 3 private companies -- Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics, and Inovio Pharmaceuticals -- の研究者らもワクチン開発に取り組んでいる。オーストラリアの研究者は，中国以外の研究室として初めてウイルスの培養に成功し，診断の大きな進歩となるブレイクスルーと述べられている ...
関連項目
Novel coronavirus (23): updates, China, UAE, Finland, ECDC, research 20200129.6929532
● 新型コロナウイルス(25) 中国，イタリア，ロシア，英国
PRO/EDR> Novel coronavirus (25): updates, China, Italy, Russia, UK
Archive Number: 20200131.694005
In this update:
[1] WHO 2019-nCoV Situation Report no. 11, 31 Jan 2020
[2] 中国 update - 31 Jan 2020
[3] New countries confirming imported cases: イタリア，ロシア，英国
[4] Evacuations
[5] US State Department travel advisory for China
[6] Diagnostic tests delivery issues
[7] Impact of 2019-nCoV
In this update:
[1] WHO 2019-nCoV Situation Report no. 11, 31 Jan 2020
[2] 中国 update - 31 Jan 2020
[3] New countries confirming imported cases: イタリア，ロシア，英国
[4] Evacuations
[5] US State Department travel advisory for China
[6] Diagnostic tests delivery issues
[7] Impact of 2019-nCoV
[1] WHO 2019-nCoV Situation Report no. 11, 31 Jan 2020
情報源 WHO 2020年1月31日
Situation in numbers
Globally: 9826 confirmed
China: 9720 confirmed, 15 238 suspected, 1527 severe, 213 deaths
Outside of China:106 confirmed, 19 countries
WHO risk assessment
China: very high
Regional level: high
Global level: high
Highlights
- ... on 30 Jan [2020]. WHO declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern. ...
- Today, the 1st 2 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease were reported in Italy; both had travel history to Wuhan City.
...
[2] 中国 update - 31 Jan 2020
情報源 Office of Health Emergency [in Chinese] 2020年1月31日
At 04:00 on 30 Jan [2020], 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported the following:
1982 new confirmed cases ...
As of 24:00 on 30 Jan [2020], the National Health and Health Commission has received a total of 9692 confirmed cases in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) ... [There were] a total of 213 deaths ...
[3] New countries confirming imported cases: イタリア，ロシア，英国
イタリア Italy
情報源 Outbreak News Today 2020年1月31日
イタリア保健省 The Italy Ministry of Health は，WHO の PHEIC 宣言を受け，直ちに衛生上の非常事態 a state of health emergency over the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) を宣言した ... 1月30日，イタリア国内では初となる，中国人旅行者 2例の感染が確認され，この患者らはローマ市内の指定施設 the Lazzaro Spallanzani reference center に隔離入院している。イタリア国内で 30日に感染患者が確認されたことを受け，中国との交通の遮断 terminate the connections with China を判断した。
ロシア Russia
情報源 Bloomberg 2020年1月31日
ロシア政府当局が，域内で初めてとなる 2例の感染 the 1st 2 cases of the novel coronavirus が確認されたと明らかにした。 the Siberian regions of Tyumen and Zabaikalsky Krai において，2名の中国人のウイルス感染が診断されたと，Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova が 31日，記者団に話した。およそ 200便の中国向けフライトもキャンセルされている，一方，4経路のモスクワ便は維持されている。The national airline Aeroflot は，北京，上海，広州，香港へのフライトの休止を決めているが，4 Chinese airlines は routes to Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport を継続する。また，モンゴルとの国境も，中国国民に対し閉鎖する ... ロシアは近年，欧州と中国を結ぶハブ空港 key airline hub となっており，Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport は 2018年の利用者数がに北京に次ぐ世界第 2位にランクされている ...
英国 UK
情報源 The Peninsula 2020年1月31日
英国保健当局が 31日，2名が新型コロナウイルス検査で陽性となり，国内で初めての患者の確認となったと明らかにした。England で同じ家族内の 2名の患者のコロナウイルス検査が陽性になった，と chief medical officer for England が公表した ... 患者は英国の在住者ではないことは分かっているが，個人情報であるとして，発生地域は明らかにされていない。
[4] Evacuations
情報源 CNBC 2020年1月30日
The State Department on Thursday [30 Jan 2020] authorized a departure of all non-emergency government employees from the US Embassy in Beijing, along with their family members, as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread.
The authorization also extends to US consulates general stationed in the Chinese cities of Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang, according to a State Department official.
"The Department of State made the decision to put the US Embassy and Consulates General on authorized departure status out of an abundance of caution related to logistical disruptions stemming from restricted transportation and availability of appropriate healthcare related to the novel coronavirus," the State Department said in a statement.
Both the US Embassy and Consulates General will continue to provide consular services across China, as resources allow, the State Department said.
The authorization, which is not an order to leave the country, came just after the World Health Organization declared the spread of the virus a global health emergency.
Since 1st emerging about a month ago, the virus has infected more than 8200 people, killed at least 171 people in China, and spread to at least 18 other countries, including the United States.
Earlier Thursday [30 Jan 2020], the United States confirmed its 1st case of human-to-human transmission of the virus. Almost 2 dozen other patients are being monitored for possible infections in Illinois.
Multiple people have contracted the virus through human-to-human transmission outside of China, according to a WHO official.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised Americans to avoid all nonessential travel to China.
The State Department on Monday [27 Jan 2020] also raised its travel advisory for China from level 2 to level 3, asking Americans to "reconsider travel to China due to the novel coronavirus."
[Byline: Yelena Dzhanova]
--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail Rapporteur Kunihiko Iizuka
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[5] US State Department travel advisory for China
Date: Thu 30 Jan 2020
Source: Travel.State.Gov [edited]
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html
Travel advisory
----------------
Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus 1st identified in Wuhan, China. On 30 Jan [2020], the World Health Organization has determined the rapidly spreading outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice. Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China.
Those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means. The Department of State has requested that all non-essential US government personnel defer travel to China in light of the novel coronavirus.
In an effort to contain the novel coronavirus, the Chinese authorities have suspended air, road, and rail travel in the area around Wuhan and placed restrictions on travel and other activities throughout the country. On 23 Jan 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency US personnel and their family members from Wuhan. The US government has limited ability to provide emergency services to US citizens in Hubei province.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a warning for all of China.
--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>
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[6] Diagnostic tests delivery issues
Date: Thu 30 Jan 2020
Source: Reuters [abridged, edited]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-swiss-roche-idUSKBN1ZT14L
Swiss drug maker Roche is struggling to deliver diagnostic tests for the coronavirus to large Chinese cities after Communist Party rulers halted people from entering and leaving in a bid to halt the spreading outbreak.
--
Communicated by:
Mary Marshall
<mjm2020@googlemail.com>
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[7] Impact of 2019-nCoV
Date: Wed 29 Jan 2020
Source: Bloomberg [edited]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/viral-sweet-spot-raises-fears-coronavirus-will-be-hard-to-stop
Ebola kills half of the people who get it. China's last worrying viral outbreak, SARS, killed 10%. The new coronavirus that originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan appears far less fatal, with about 2% of the 6000 confirmed cases dying. For many, the illness is about as serious as a cold or flu.
That seems like good news, but it's exactly what worries the scientists and public health experts who study infectious disease ranging from the terrifying to the mundane.
"These hot viruses are very scary and very deadly, but unless they land in the middle of Heathrow Airport or another densely populated place, they aren't likely to be long-lasting," said Jennifer Rohn, head of the center for urological biology at the University College London and an expert in pandemics. "They burn fast and burn through the population. A virus needs a host to survive."
In an epidemiological twist of fate, the coronavirus's mildness may help it spread undetected until it hits the most vulnerable people. Experts are concerned that it could find a devastating "sweet spot," mild enough that some patients will go about their normal routines and spread the virus far and wide, triggering an increase in deaths. And if some patients may spread the virus when they have mild or no symptoms at all, as Chinese officials have asserted, that would undercut efforts to halt transmission.
The coronavirus has been compared to the flu, which every year infects 10 million-50 million people in the US, leaving tens of thousands of people dead, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It's a mild-mannered serial killer. The aggressive response to the coronavirus is meant to stop the new pathogen from becoming a deadlier copycat.
"A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it," Michael Ryan, director of the World Health Organization's Emergencies Programme, said at a briefing Wednesday [29 Jan 2020]. "A virus needs a host to survive."
Behind the decisions to lock down travel for tens of millions in China, isolate suspected cases, and put the public and health workers on high alert is a simple but worrying piece of math: If the new coronavirus somehow were to infect 60 million Americans as the swine flu did in 2009 and 2010, but with the same 2% death rate reported in China for the new virus, it could kill over 1 million people.
"Even if only 1% of people who are infected die, if it can spread globally, that will be a lot of people," said Christian Althaus, a computational epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
So far, the vast majority of the 6000 global cases of the new coronavirus, known for now as 2019-nCov, have been contained to China.
But the disease has spread inside the world's most populous nation, a major hub of travel and trade for the region, with cases emerging in Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere. There are early reports of spread in other countries, as well. Four people in Germany were infected by a coworker visiting from China who didn't get sick until her plane ride back. In Viet Nam, a Chinese man from Wuhan spread the disease to his son there during a visit to the country, during a trip where the infected family traveled around the country on planes, trains, and taxis.
Inside China, the actual case count may be far higher than has been reported. One estimate says the number of infections may have hit more than 26 000 by 28 Jan [2020], according to research from Jinan University published in the biology preprint website, BioRxiv.
Within China, "what the numbers are telling us is this is a very serious situation, and the virus is spreading in a very concerning way," said Michael Olsterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. So far, it appears "it is going to be much more difficult to control than SARS."
Viruses are more or less helpless on their own. Without a living thing to make their home, they can't reproduce and spread. Often, that host may be an animal, and the virus makes the jump into people who come into contact with a natural reservoir of the disease.
When an outbreak happens, isolating people isolates the virus. Hospital gowns and masks stop it from spreading through the air or in bodily fluids. Quarantines keep sick people away from new, healthy hosts. The perfect virus makes people sick enough to spread -- sneezing up droplets of germ-laden mist into the air, or leaving a thin residue from a wiped nose on a subway pole -- without making them so sick or killing them so quickly that they never get the chance to pass it on.
"There is definitely a sweet spot," said Rohn, the University College London pandemic expert. "The minute you run out of people, it's game over for that virus. It's a balance the virus needs to strike."
Coronaviruses were long thought to mostly cause cold-like symptoms in humans. But in 2002 and 2003, the coronavirus SARS caused more than 8000 cases and killed around 800 after it emerged in southern China, a roughly 10% mortality rate. In part because most cases were severe and easily recognized, it was contained within months, despite an initial period of uncontained spread because of China's slow response.
"Public health controlled SARS because SARS let it, because you could recognize and isolate disease," said Mark Denison, director of infectious diseases and pediatrics professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, who has studied antiviral drugs against coronaviruses. Health authorities have noted that the latest outbreak's death rate, now around 2%, may drop as more mild cases are discovered.
In 2009 and 2010, another new pathogen, the H1N1 "swine flu" virus, raced around the world like wildfire. It eventually infected nearly 61 million Americans, though it was so mild that many didn't know they had it. It still caused more than 12 000 deaths in the US, a number that's actually lower than what is normally seen during a typical flu season.
"We are still trying to figure out where this is on the spectrum between SARS, where the vast majority of transmission occurs from very sick people, to something like influenza," said Julie Gerberding, who was the director of the CDC during the SARS outbreak and now works as the chief patient officer at Merck & Co. "This is probably somewhere in between those 2 extremes, but where it's going to fall is a little bit too early to say. That pertains to the mortality figures as well."
In the coronavirus outbreak, more than 1/5 of confirmed patients have developed serious illnesses, according to figures from the Chinese government. Many are elderly, or have underlying health conditions, that put them more at risk. But people with milder cases may keep going to work, traveling, shopping, and spreading the virus.
"If this is a mild infection that only in rare circumstances causes pneumonia or death, many people would probably breathe a sigh of relief," said Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "But it's often a trade-off. You want to have this contained."
Whatever happens with the Wuhan outbreak, it's not going to be the last time a new coronavirus emerges from bats or other animals and starts infecting people. In the last 2 decades, the world has dealt with two significant Ebola outbreaks, another coronavirus disease, MERS, in the Middle East, and SARS. People will keep bumping into new viruses, ones that humans have never before encountered and to which they have no natural immunity and have developed no drugs or vaccines.
"There is every reason to believe these events are going to continue to occur," said Mark Feinberg, a former Merck vaccine executive and president of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. "We need to take them very, very seriously."
[Situation in numbers as of 31 Jan 2020 7 pm ET
(https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
-----------------------------------------
Globally: 11 374 confirmed
China: 11 221 confirmed, 259 deaths
Outside of China: 153 confirmed, 26 countries:
19 Thailand, 17 Japan, 16 Singapore, 13 Hong Kong, 11 South Korea, 10 Taiwan, 9 Australia, 8 Malaysia, 7 Germany, 7 Macau, 7 US, 6 France, 4 United Arab Emirates, 3 Canada, 2 Italy, 2 Russia, 2 UK, 2 Vietnam, 1 Cambodia, 1 Finland, 1 India, 1 Nepal, 1 Philippines, 1 Spain, 1 Sri Lanka, 1 Sweden. - Mod.ML
情報源 WHO 2020年1月31日
Situation in numbers
Globally: 9826 confirmed
China: 9720 confirmed, 15 238 suspected, 1527 severe, 213 deaths
Outside of China:106 confirmed, 19 countries
WHO risk assessment
China: very high
Regional level: high
Global level: high
Highlights
- ... on 30 Jan [2020]. WHO declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern. ...
- Today, the 1st 2 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease were reported in Italy; both had travel history to Wuhan City.
...
[2] 中国 update - 31 Jan 2020
情報源 Office of Health Emergency [in Chinese] 2020年1月31日
At 04:00 on 30 Jan [2020], 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported the following:
1982 new confirmed cases ...
As of 24:00 on 30 Jan [2020], the National Health and Health Commission has received a total of 9692 confirmed cases in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) ... [There were] a total of 213 deaths ...
[3] New countries confirming imported cases: イタリア，ロシア，英国
イタリア Italy
情報源 Outbreak News Today 2020年1月31日
イタリア保健省 The Italy Ministry of Health は，WHO の PHEIC 宣言を受け，直ちに衛生上の非常事態 a state of health emergency over the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) を宣言した ... 1月30日，イタリア国内では初となる，中国人旅行者 2例の感染が確認され，この患者らはローマ市内の指定施設 the Lazzaro Spallanzani reference center に隔離入院している。イタリア国内で 30日に感染患者が確認されたことを受け，中国との交通の遮断 terminate the connections with China を判断した。
ロシア Russia
情報源 Bloomberg 2020年1月31日
ロシア政府当局が，域内で初めてとなる 2例の感染 the 1st 2 cases of the novel coronavirus が確認されたと明らかにした。 the Siberian regions of Tyumen and Zabaikalsky Krai において，2名の中国人のウイルス感染が診断されたと，Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova が 31日，記者団に話した。およそ 200便の中国向けフライトもキャンセルされている，一方，4経路のモスクワ便は維持されている。The national airline Aeroflot は，北京，上海，広州，香港へのフライトの休止を決めているが，4 Chinese airlines は routes to Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport を継続する。また，モンゴルとの国境も，中国国民に対し閉鎖する ... ロシアは近年，欧州と中国を結ぶハブ空港 key airline hub となっており，Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport は 2018年の利用者数がに北京に次ぐ世界第 2位にランクされている ...
英国 UK
情報源 The Peninsula 2020年1月31日
英国保健当局が 31日，2名が新型コロナウイルス検査で陽性となり，国内で初めての患者の確認となったと明らかにした。England で同じ家族内の 2名の患者のコロナウイルス検査が陽性になった，と chief medical officer for England が公表した ... 患者は英国の在住者ではないことは分かっているが，個人情報であるとして，発生地域は明らかにされていない。
[4] Evacuations
情報源 CNBC 2020年1月30日
The State Department on Thursday [30 Jan 2020] authorized a departure of all non-emergency government employees from the US Embassy in Beijing, along with their family members, as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread.
The authorization also extends to US consulates general stationed in the Chinese cities of Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang, according to a State Department official.
"The Department of State made the decision to put the US Embassy and Consulates General on authorized departure status out of an abundance of caution related to logistical disruptions stemming from restricted transportation and availability of appropriate healthcare related to the novel coronavirus," the State Department said in a statement.
Both the US Embassy and Consulates General will continue to provide consular services across China, as resources allow, the State Department said.
The authorization, which is not an order to leave the country, came just after the World Health Organization declared the spread of the virus a global health emergency.
Since 1st emerging about a month ago, the virus has infected more than 8200 people, killed at least 171 people in China, and spread to at least 18 other countries, including the United States.
Earlier Thursday [30 Jan 2020], the United States confirmed its 1st case of human-to-human transmission of the virus. Almost 2 dozen other patients are being monitored for possible infections in Illinois.
Multiple people have contracted the virus through human-to-human transmission outside of China, according to a WHO official.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised Americans to avoid all nonessential travel to China.
The State Department on Monday [27 Jan 2020] also raised its travel advisory for China from level 2 to level 3, asking Americans to "reconsider travel to China due to the novel coronavirus."
[Byline: Yelena Dzhanova]
--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail Rapporteur Kunihiko Iizuka
******
[5] US State Department travel advisory for China
Date: Thu 30 Jan 2020
Source: Travel.State.Gov [edited]
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html
Travel advisory
----------------
Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus 1st identified in Wuhan, China. On 30 Jan [2020], the World Health Organization has determined the rapidly spreading outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice. Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China.
Those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means. The Department of State has requested that all non-essential US government personnel defer travel to China in light of the novel coronavirus.
In an effort to contain the novel coronavirus, the Chinese authorities have suspended air, road, and rail travel in the area around Wuhan and placed restrictions on travel and other activities throughout the country. On 23 Jan 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency US personnel and their family members from Wuhan. The US government has limited ability to provide emergency services to US citizens in Hubei province.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a warning for all of China.
--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>
******
[6] Diagnostic tests delivery issues
Date: Thu 30 Jan 2020
Source: Reuters [abridged, edited]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-swiss-roche-idUSKBN1ZT14L
Swiss drug maker Roche is struggling to deliver diagnostic tests for the coronavirus to large Chinese cities after Communist Party rulers halted people from entering and leaving in a bid to halt the spreading outbreak.
--
Communicated by:
Mary Marshall
<mjm2020@googlemail.com>
******
[7] Impact of 2019-nCoV
Date: Wed 29 Jan 2020
Source: Bloomberg [edited]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/viral-sweet-spot-raises-fears-coronavirus-will-be-hard-to-stop
Ebola kills half of the people who get it. China's last worrying viral outbreak, SARS, killed 10%. The new coronavirus that originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan appears far less fatal, with about 2% of the 6000 confirmed cases dying. For many, the illness is about as serious as a cold or flu.
That seems like good news, but it's exactly what worries the scientists and public health experts who study infectious disease ranging from the terrifying to the mundane.
"These hot viruses are very scary and very deadly, but unless they land in the middle of Heathrow Airport or another densely populated place, they aren't likely to be long-lasting," said Jennifer Rohn, head of the center for urological biology at the University College London and an expert in pandemics. "They burn fast and burn through the population. A virus needs a host to survive."
In an epidemiological twist of fate, the coronavirus's mildness may help it spread undetected until it hits the most vulnerable people. Experts are concerned that it could find a devastating "sweet spot," mild enough that some patients will go about their normal routines and spread the virus far and wide, triggering an increase in deaths. And if some patients may spread the virus when they have mild or no symptoms at all, as Chinese officials have asserted, that would undercut efforts to halt transmission.
The coronavirus has been compared to the flu, which every year infects 10 million-50 million people in the US, leaving tens of thousands of people dead, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It's a mild-mannered serial killer. The aggressive response to the coronavirus is meant to stop the new pathogen from becoming a deadlier copycat.
"A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it," Michael Ryan, director of the World Health Organization's Emergencies Programme, said at a briefing Wednesday [29 Jan 2020]. "A virus needs a host to survive."
Behind the decisions to lock down travel for tens of millions in China, isolate suspected cases, and put the public and health workers on high alert is a simple but worrying piece of math: If the new coronavirus somehow were to infect 60 million Americans as the swine flu did in 2009 and 2010, but with the same 2% death rate reported in China for the new virus, it could kill over 1 million people.
"Even if only 1% of people who are infected die, if it can spread globally, that will be a lot of people," said Christian Althaus, a computational epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
So far, the vast majority of the 6000 global cases of the new coronavirus, known for now as 2019-nCov, have been contained to China.
But the disease has spread inside the world's most populous nation, a major hub of travel and trade for the region, with cases emerging in Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere. There are early reports of spread in other countries, as well. Four people in Germany were infected by a coworker visiting from China who didn't get sick until her plane ride back. In Viet Nam, a Chinese man from Wuhan spread the disease to his son there during a visit to the country, during a trip where the infected family traveled around the country on planes, trains, and taxis.
Inside China, the actual case count may be far higher than has been reported. One estimate says the number of infections may have hit more than 26 000 by 28 Jan [2020], according to research from Jinan University published in the biology preprint website, BioRxiv.
Within China, "what the numbers are telling us is this is a very serious situation, and the virus is spreading in a very concerning way," said Michael Olsterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. So far, it appears "it is going to be much more difficult to control than SARS."
Viruses are more or less helpless on their own. Without a living thing to make their home, they can't reproduce and spread. Often, that host may be an animal, and the virus makes the jump into people who come into contact with a natural reservoir of the disease.
When an outbreak happens, isolating people isolates the virus. Hospital gowns and masks stop it from spreading through the air or in bodily fluids. Quarantines keep sick people away from new, healthy hosts. The perfect virus makes people sick enough to spread -- sneezing up droplets of germ-laden mist into the air, or leaving a thin residue from a wiped nose on a subway pole -- without making them so sick or killing them so quickly that they never get the chance to pass it on.
"There is definitely a sweet spot," said Rohn, the University College London pandemic expert. "The minute you run out of people, it's game over for that virus. It's a balance the virus needs to strike."
Coronaviruses were long thought to mostly cause cold-like symptoms in humans. But in 2002 and 2003, the coronavirus SARS caused more than 8000 cases and killed around 800 after it emerged in southern China, a roughly 10% mortality rate. In part because most cases were severe and easily recognized, it was contained within months, despite an initial period of uncontained spread because of China's slow response.
"Public health controlled SARS because SARS let it, because you could recognize and isolate disease," said Mark Denison, director of infectious diseases and pediatrics professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, who has studied antiviral drugs against coronaviruses. Health authorities have noted that the latest outbreak's death rate, now around 2%, may drop as more mild cases are discovered.
In 2009 and 2010, another new pathogen, the H1N1 "swine flu" virus, raced around the world like wildfire. It eventually infected nearly 61 million Americans, though it was so mild that many didn't know they had it. It still caused more than 12 000 deaths in the US, a number that's actually lower than what is normally seen during a typical flu season.
"We are still trying to figure out where this is on the spectrum between SARS, where the vast majority of transmission occurs from very sick people, to something like influenza," said Julie Gerberding, who was the director of the CDC during the SARS outbreak and now works as the chief patient officer at Merck & Co. "This is probably somewhere in between those 2 extremes, but where it's going to fall is a little bit too early to say. That pertains to the mortality figures as well."
In the coronavirus outbreak, more than 1/5 of confirmed patients have developed serious illnesses, according to figures from the Chinese government. Many are elderly, or have underlying health conditions, that put them more at risk. But people with milder cases may keep going to work, traveling, shopping, and spreading the virus.
"If this is a mild infection that only in rare circumstances causes pneumonia or death, many people would probably breathe a sigh of relief," said Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "But it's often a trade-off. You want to have this contained."
Whatever happens with the Wuhan outbreak, it's not going to be the last time a new coronavirus emerges from bats or other animals and starts infecting people. In the last 2 decades, the world has dealt with two significant Ebola outbreaks, another coronavirus disease, MERS, in the Middle East, and SARS. People will keep bumping into new viruses, ones that humans have never before encountered and to which they have no natural immunity and have developed no drugs or vaccines.
"There is every reason to believe these events are going to continue to occur," said Mark Feinberg, a former Merck vaccine executive and president of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. "We need to take them very, very seriously."
[Situation in numbers as of 31 Jan 2020 7 pm ET
(https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
-----------------------------------------
Globally: 11 374 confirmed
China: 11 221 confirmed, 259 deaths
Outside of China: 153 confirmed, 26 countries:
19 Thailand, 17 Japan, 16 Singapore, 13 Hong Kong, 11 South Korea, 10 Taiwan, 9 Australia, 8 Malaysia, 7 Germany, 7 Macau, 7 US, 6 France, 4 United Arab Emirates, 3 Canada, 2 Italy, 2 Russia, 2 UK, 2 Vietnam, 1 Cambodia, 1 Finland, 1 India, 1 Nepal, 1 Philippines, 1 Spain, 1 Sri Lanka, 1 Sweden. - Mod.ML
PRO/EDR> Novel coronavirus (24): updates, China, PHEIC, India, economy, research
Archive Number: 20200131.6937255
In this update:
[1] 2019-nCoV declared as PHEIC, 30 Jan 2020
[2] WHO Situation Report no. 9, 29 Jan 2020
[3-4] China update - 30 Jan 2020，Zhejiang, Henan, Guangdong provinces, 30 Jan 2020
[5] New countries confirming imported cases: India; BC, Canada
[6-7] Germany, USA, South Korea，Thailand, Japan, Australia
[8-11] Travel advisory for citizens，Flight suspensions，Border closure - Russia，Economic costs
[12] Research - Incubation period，Neutralizing antibodies，Vaccine
[1] 2019-nCoV declared as PHEIC, 30 Jan 2020
情報源 WHO 2020年1月30日
FORTH 厚労省検疫所より。
新型コロナウイルスのアウトブレイクに関するIHR（国際保健規則）緊急委員会 第２回会合に関する声明：原文の公表は1月30日です。最新の情報を確認してください。
...
会議の議事録
...
現在、中国全国で7,711例の確定例と12,167例の疑い例があります。 確定例のうち、1,370人が重症で170人が死亡しました。124人が回復し病院から退院しました。
現在、18か国で83件の症例があります。 これらのうち、中国への旅行歴がなかったのは7例のみでした。中国以外の3カ国でヒトからヒトへの感染がみられました。うち1例では重症となっており、死亡した例はありませんでした ...
結論とアドバイス
... 1か月で5つのWHO地域で症例が報告されているなか、まだ多くの未知のものがあることと、そして、武漢の外および中国の外でヒトからヒトへの感染が発生していることを認めました。 ... このアウトブレイクが現時点において PHEIC の基準に合致していると意見が一致し、暫定的な勧告として発出される以下のような助言を提案しました ...
WHOに対するアドバイス
... 委員会は、入手可能な現在の情報に基づいて、渡航または貿易の制限をしないことを推奨します。
中国に対するアドバイス
次のことを継続してください。
●包括的なリスクコミュニケーション戦略を実施して、アウトブレイクの展開や状況、人々における予防及び防護の対策、封じ込め策について、定期的に人々に周知すること
●現在の流行の封じ込めのための公衆衛生対策を強化すること
●保健医療システムの回復力・強靭性（レジリエンス）を確保し、医療従事者を守りマンパワーを確保すること
●中国全土でサーベイランスと積極的な症例検出を強化すること
●WHOおよびパートナーと協力して、このアウトブレイクの疫学および展開と封じ込め対策を把握し評価するための調査を実施すること
●症例に関するデータを共有すること
●このアウトブレイクにおける人獣共通感染の発生源、とりわけ潜在的な地域循環する可能性の特定を続けること。そして、把握したらすぐにWHOに共有すること
●国際交通への干渉を最小限に抑えながら、さらなる評価と治療を行うために症状のある旅行者を早期に発見することを目的として、国際空港と国際港で出国（出航）スクリーニングを実施すること
全ての国に対するアドバイス
... 積極的なサーベイランス、早期発見、隔離と症例管理、接触追跡と新型コロナウイルスの伝播の防止などについて、すべての国が封じ込めの準備を整えるべきです。そしてすべてのデータをWHOと共有すべきです ...
グローバルコミュニティに対して
... グローバルコミュニティはIHR（国際保健規則）の第44条に従って、連帯と協力を引き続き実行すべきです ...
[2] WHO Situation Report no. 9, 29 Jan 2020
情報源 WHO 2020年1月29日
Situation in numbers
Globally: 6065 cases confirmed
China: 5997confirmed, 9239 suspected, 1239 severe, 132 deaths
Outside of China: 68 confirmed, 15 countries
WHO risk assessment
China: very high
Regional level: high
Global level: high
Highlights
- United Arab Emirates において，武漢市からの旅行者 4人の感染を確認。
...
[3] 中国 update - 30 Jan 2020
情報源 China.org 2020年1月30日
中国政府当局は 1月30日，7711 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus in 31 provincial-level regions が報告と明らかにした。死者は合計 170人 ...
1月29日， チベット Tibet Autonomous Region 自治区で初めて確認された症例を含む 1737 new confirmed cases, と 38例の死亡 deaths, including 37 in Hubei province 湖北省 and one in Sichuan province 四川省，が確認された ...
[4] 中国
Epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection [in Chinese]
Zhejiang province 浙江省
... As of 24:00 on 29 Jan 2020, Zhejiang province had reported a total of 428 confirmed cases of pneumonitis with new coronavirus infection, 54 severe cases, ... 省内の地域別発生数，原文参照願います。
Henan province 湖南省
At 04:00 on 29 Jan 2020, the province had reported a total of 278 confirmed cases of pneumonia of new coronavirus infection, 37 severe cases, 同上。
Guangdong province 広東省:
As of 12:00 on 30 Jan 2020, 354 cases of pneumonia diagnosed with new coronavirus infection have been reported in the province. ... There were 176 males and 178 females, aged between 11 months and 85 years.
[5] New countries confirming imported cases: インド; BC, カナダ
インド
情報源 India Today 2020年1月30日
Highlights
- India's 1st coronavirus case reported in Kerala
- Patient is a student studying in China's Wuhan University
- Patient is stable and being closely monitored
カナダ British Columbia, Canada
情報源 Prince George Citizen 2020年1月29日
州保健当局 the BC Centre for Disease Control により，バンクーバー Metro Vancouver で初めての感染例 The 1st case of the novel coronavirus が確認された。the Vancouver，the North Shore, Richmond, and the Sea to Sky corridor as far as Bella Coola などが含まれる，Coastal Health Authority region 在住の 40歳代男性で，定期的に中国との間を行き来するビジネスマンであり，最近，一時的な武漢市滞在も含めた中国国内への旅行から帰国した。
[6] ドイツ，米国，韓国
ドイツ
情報源 Yahoo Sports 2020年1月28日
ドイツ国内で，欧州内では初めてのコロナウイルスのヒト－ヒト感染例が，1月28日確認された。the Starnberg area of Bavaria の 33歳男性は，中国から出張中であった，ミュンヘン近郊に本社のある自動車部品サプライヤー automotive supplier Webasto 社の同僚からウイルスに感染した。州保健当局は，国内で他の患者は発見されておらず，感染拡大のリスクは低い，としている。上海 Shanghai から来たこの中国人の社員は，21日にセミナー出席のため Webasto's German headquarters を訪れたが，23日の帰国便内で発病した。(この女性社員は) 中国に帰国後，検査が陽性となった。ドイツへ出発する数日前に武漢から来た両親と会っていた。
米国
情報源 CNBC 2020年1月30日
30日，イリノイ州保健当局 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Illinois public health officials は 30日，米国内では初めてとなるヒト－ヒト感染例 the nation's 1st person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus を報告した。武漢から感染して帰国したシカゴの女性の配偶者であった。
韓国
情報源 Channale News Asia 2020年1月30日
韓国保健当局 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea が 30日，国内初のヒト－ヒト感染例 the 1st local case of human-to-human transmission を報告した。エアライン各社により中国便の運行を停止されている中，新たに 2例の感染が確認され，合計患者数は 6例となった。6例目の患者は 56歳の韓国人男性で，南部 the South で 3例目の患者と接触後に感染が判明した。現在，ソウルの病院に隔離されている。他の 5例は，武漢市から帰国後に診断された症例。
[7] タイ，日本，オーストラリア
タイ
情報源 News-24 [in French] 2020年1月28日
The number of coronavirus cases in Thailand is 14。中国からの客はすべて検査されている。
日本
情報源 Daily Mail 2020年1月30日
武漢から帰還した日本人のうちの 3人が，新型コロナウイルス検査で陽性となり，フィリピンとインドでも感染が確認されている。日本人のうちの 2人は，移送中は何も症状が見られなかった。
オーストラリア
情報源 Sky News 2020年1月30日
The 7th case was confirmed in Australia, the 1st in Queensland, a 44-year-old Chinese national.
[8] 渡航勧告: India
情報源 Telangana Today 2020年1月30日
中国へのフライトを持つ，唯一のインドのキャリア 2社 -- IndiGo and Air India -- が 29日，新型コロナウイルス感染に襲われている同国との間の運行停止を発表した ... 最新の渡航勧告では，中国への渡航を控えるよう呼びかけられている
[9] 運行停止 Flight suspensions: multiple airlines
情報源 LemonWire 2020年1月30日
British Airways は all flights to China を, American Airlines は Los Angeles flights to and from Shanghai 上海 and Beijing 北京 の運行停止を決めた ... Air India and South Korean budget-carrier Seoul Air も停止を決め, and Indonesia's Lion Air は同様の措置を検討中である。Other carriers, including Finnair, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, and Singapore-based Jetstar Asia, are slashing service ...
Starbucks ... said more than half of its 4292 stores in China are now closed.
By contrast, McDonald's ... has closed several hundred restaurants, including all of its properties in Hubei province. But 3000 remain open elsewhere in the country ... 他の Airline についての情報など，原文参照願います。
- Japan's JAL said it had not changed its flight plans, while German carrier Lufthansa said it was monitoring the situation "very closely" and would, if necessary, make changes in consultation with the authorities.
[10] 国境封鎖 - ロシア
情報源 Pravda report 2020年1月30日
Russia closes border with China as 2019-nCoV coronavirus claims more lives.
[11] Economic costs
情報源 Reuters 2020年1月29日
保険会社，エアライン，ホテル，旅行会社，スターバックス， ... 原文参照願います。
[12] Research
[a] 潜伏期間 Incubation period
情報源1 MedRxiv 2020年1月27日
原著タイトル The incubation. period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China. MedRxiv. 2020 (preprint); doi: .
要約
... 武漢市以外で確認された 34例の患者の，渡航歴と発症時の症状から，平均の潜伏期間 the mean incubation period は 5.8 日 (4.6-7.9, 95% CI) days, ranging from 1.3-11.3 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile) と推計された。
These values help to inform case definitions for 2019-nCoV and appropriate durations for quarantine.
情報源2 GitHub 2020年1月29日
湖北省以外で確認された患者 Wuhan novel coronavirus (nCoV-2019) cases の暴露と症状を collecting data (freely available) している。これらは，地域内感染が確認されていない国または地方で確認された症例である ...
Data summary
101 cases from 38 countries and provinces outside of Hubei, China のうち，平均年齢は 52歳。29 cases が Mainland China (29%)。61 cases (60%) に発熱が認められている。
平均の潜伏期間 The median incubation period は 5.174 days (CI: 4.46-6.037) だが，The 2.5% では 2.542 days 未満(CI: 1.829-3.564) であり，一方で，97.5% of the population would experience symptoms by 10.531 days (CI: 7.381-15.051) であった。
[?] The 'meanlog' and 'sdlog' estimates are the median and dispersion parameters for a LogNormal distribution; i.e., we recommend using a LogNormal (1.644, 0.363) distribution to appropriately represent the incubation time distribution .
[b] 中和抗体 Neutralizing antibodies
情報源 Tass 2020年1月29日
Scientists discover antibody that can neutralize 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
原文参照願います。
[c] ワクチン Vaccine
情報源 Vice 2020年1月29日
新型コロナウイルス感染の患者数が 2003年の SARS を上回る中，香港の研究者らがワクチンの開発に成功したと発表した。chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong は，すでにワクチンの製造は完了したが，検査には長い時間がかかるだろうと述べた。研究チームは，香港初の輸入感染例からこの未知のウイルスを分離したと明らかにした。使用できるまでに，動物実験に数か月，ヒトの臨床試験にさらに1年以上を要すると述べた ... 現在米国では少なくとも 4 labs in the US がワクチンの開発に取り組んでいる。The National Institutes of Health in Maryland が数週間前から，ほか 3 private companies -- Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics, and Inovio Pharmaceuticals -- の研究者らもワクチン開発に取り組んでいる。オーストラリアの研究者は，中国以外の研究室として初めてウイルスの培養に成功し，診断の大きな進歩となるブレイクスルーと述べられている ...
関連項目
Novel coronavirus (23): updates, China, UAE, Finland, ECDC, research 20200129.6929532